Breaking record! New energy logistics vehicles are flooding into the lower-tier markets.

The data shows that in April, the domestic market for new energy logistics vehicles achieved a historic breakthrough. The total monthly sales reached 87,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.74%, and a month-on-month increase of 6.92%, setting a new record for monthly sales in the industry. New energy logistics vehicles have seized the existing market with multiple advantages. The shift from oil to electricity has become the main trend of the industry, and the pace of replacing the existing market has been comprehensively accelerated. 

From the perspective of market regional distribution, the underdeveloped markets have become the core driving force for the growth of the industry. According to statistics, in April, the sales volume of new energy logistics vehicles in third-tier cities reached 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 106.21%, surpassing second-tier cities and becoming the fastest-growing sector; the year-on-year growth rate in fourth-tier cities also exceeded 100%, reaching 105.45%; the year-on-year growth in fifth-tier cities was 65.72%, maintaining a stable upward trend. 

In contrast, in first- and second-tier cities, although they still account for the majority of the sales of new energy logistics vehicles, the market penetration rate has reached saturation, and the growth rate has significantly lagged behind that of the markets in third-tier and lower levels. The market focus has continued to shift to county and township areas, and new energy logistics vehicles have flooded into the lower-tier markets on a large scale. 

Demand, cost and policy work together to drive progress. 

On May 29th, the grand batch delivery ceremony of new energy vehicles for two major customers of Foton Ouhang and Omaque was inaugurated in Beijing. This delivery ceremony brought together leading logistics enterprises in the industry, and it can be regarded as a microcosm of the large-scale replacement of new energy vehicles in logistics fleets in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. 

As one of the two major core clients, Zhou Cai, the founder, chairman and president of Beijing Anxin Jieda Logistics Co., Ltd., has been deeply involved in the logistics industry for many years. He has witnessed the entire process of the new energy logistics vehicles from pilot testing to gradual penetration. He has a firsthand understanding of the industry trend of new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles and the accelerating market expansion. 

Zhou Cai introduced that Anxin Jieda Logistics purchased 50 fully electric 4.2-meter box trucks in the first batch in 2022, marking the beginning of the company's transition to an electric vehicle fleet. The company implements a three-year cycle for vehicle renewal and scrapping, simultaneously completing the scrapping of old fuel vehicles, the replacement of inefficient new energy vehicles, and the addition of new transportation capacity, steadily promoting the optimization of the fleet structure. As of now, among the approximately 300 logistics fleets under the company, the penetration rate of new energy logistics vehicles has reached 60%. 

With the continuous technological upgrades, the types of new energy logistics vehicles have become increasingly diverse, breaking the previous limitation where only light trucks and micro trucks under 4.2 meters were available for selection. Zhou Cai disclosed that this year, the company not only continued to purchase mainstream 4.2-meter new energy trucks, but also introduced a batch of 9.6-meter large all-electric logistics vehicles, achieving an all-model and all-scenario electrification layout. According to the current replacement pace, it is expected that within the next two to three years, the fleet will basically complete the full-electric replacement, and the fuel-powered logistics vehicles will gradually be removed from the operation sequence. 

In Zhou Cai's view, the rapid influx of new energy logistics vehicles into the lower-tier markets is a natural outcome driven by three factors: market demand, operating costs, and policy orientation. From a cost perspective, although the purchase price of new energy logistics vehicles is higher than that of similar fuel vehicles, their operational cost advantages are prominent. Taking the 4.2-meter model as an example, the purchase cost of a fuel vehicle is approximately 140,000 yuan, while that of a new energy vehicle is about 200,000 yuan; the energy consumption cost per kilometer for a fuel vehicle is 0.8 to 1.2 yuan, while for a new energy vehicle it is only 0.3 to 0.5 yuan. After operating for 100,000 kilometers per year, the operating cost can be saved by more than 60,000 yuan, and the purchase price difference can be recovered in about one year. The operators in the lower-tier markets are highly sensitive to costs and economic considerations become the primary factor for vehicle replacement. 

From the policy perspective, the "dual carbon" goal is being continuously advanced. The policy of phasing out old fuel vehicles of type IV and below has been implemented. Many regions have introduced purchase subsidies ranging from 5,000 yuan to 35,000 yuan per vehicle. Coupled with tax reduction for purchases, priority access to urban roads, and other benefits, the threshold for car purchases has been significantly lowered. At the same time, local governments have launched exclusive support policies to assist in the construction of a green logistics system. 

From the perspective of market demand, in the past, the promotion of new energy logistics vehicles mainly focused on first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Now, with the interconnection of urban and rural logistics, the consumption awareness in the lower-tier markets has rapidly improved. The electrification of private cars in rural areas has promoted the transformation of truck users' concepts; the projects of agricultural products going up, industrial products going down to rural areas, and express delivery entering villages have been advanced in depth, and the demand for short-distance distribution in county-level and township areas has exploded. This provides broad application scenarios for new energy logistics vehicles. The demand for new energy logistics vehicles in lower-tier markets has become increasingly urgent, and the replacement desire has continued to rise.

The transition from oil to electricity has entered a golden period. 

Standing at the forefront of industry development, the replacement of traditional fuel-powered logistics vehicles by new energy logistics vehicles is accelerating continuously. It is expected that from 2026 to 2030, a comprehensive acceleration period of replacement will be reached, especially in markets below the third tier. A large-scale replacement wave is about to fully hit. 

Chen Junlong, the head of a certain enterprise, stated that the promotion of new energy logistics vehicles in first- and second-tier cities has shifted from being driven by policies to being chosen spontaneously by the market. Meanwhile, the lower-tier markets are now moving beyond the pilot introduction stage and entering a golden period for large-scale replication and promotion. 

Based on the feedback from industry operations, there are clear signs of the acceleration of the substitution process. Chen Junlong explained that since the second half of 2025, the number of logistics enterprises and individual fleets actively seeking consultation on fuel vehicle replacement plans has soared. The industry has shifted from enterprises promoting the replacement passively to users actively seeking it. Zhou Cai told me that among his logistics colleagues, there has been a consensus that new transportation capacity no longer considers fuel vehicles, and old vehicles reaching the end of their lifespan are directly replaced with new energy vehicles. The substitution atmosphere in the industry has already taken shape. 

The combination of multiple favorable factors has laid a solid foundation for accelerating the replacement process. Chen Junlong analyzed that, first of all, the cost of batteries has continued to decline, and the industry's profit margin has continuously expanded. The price of power batteries has dropped from 1.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2021 to 0.7 yuan per kilowatt-hour by 2024, and there is still room for further reduction. The price gap between new energy logistics vehicles and fuel vehicles has gradually narrowed to within 30,000 yuan, and the cost advantage throughout the entire life cycle has become more prominent, eliminating users' concerns about purchasing. 

Secondly, the concentrated scrapping wave of fourth-generation diesel vehicles is approaching, releasing a demand of millions for replacements. From 2025 to 2027, a large number of old fourth-generation fuel vehicles will reach their scrap age. Under the dual stimulation of policy-guided scrapping and replacement subsidies, the lower-tier market will witness a concentrated replacement window period, directly driving the growth of sales of new energy logistics vehicles. 

Thirdly, the energy replenishment system is becoming increasingly mature, effectively addressing the core pain points of the industry. Currently, 75 charging and swapping pilot counties have been established across the country. County-level charging piles and swapping stations are accelerating their construction and implementation. Models such as 3-minute rapid swapping and fast charging replenishment have been fully popularized, completely solving the problem of slow charging in the lower-tier markets and the delay in delivery due to it. At the same time, car manufacturers have launched cost-effective and durable special vehicle models suitable for rural road conditions. With a 200-300 kilometer range precisely matching the short-distance delivery needs of county areas, they do not need to blindly pursue large batteries and long ranges, effectively controlling the purchase cost. 

In addition, the integration of finance and maintenance services has been continuously improved, reducing the risks associated with vehicle purchase and operation. Low-interest installment plans, low down payments, and lease-to-purchase schemes have become widespread, alleviating the financial pressure on users in the underdeveloped markets. Major car manufacturers have extended the warranty period for the three-electricity system to 8 years or 600,000 kilometers, eliminating concerns about future maintenance and further accelerating the process of phasing out and replacing fuel vehicles. Zhou Cai predicts that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and most of the underdeveloped markets across the country, the main replacement of new energy logistics vehicles will be basically completed within 1.5 years at the earliest and 3 years at the latest. The market share of fuel logistics vehicles will rapidly shrink. 

The underdeveloped market also needs to strengthen its ecosystem. 

With the continuous advancement of rural revitalization and the construction of county-level commercial systems, the demand for agricultural product cold chain, urban-rural daily delivery, and the extension of express delivery to rural areas has continued to expand. The grassroots market is shifting from the indecisive stage of "whether to switch to an electric vehicle" to the rational decision-making stage of "how to make the switch more cost-effective and how to use it more efficiently". 

In Chen Junlong's view, the demand for new energy logistics vehicles in the lower-tier markets exhibits distinct differentiation features, clearly distinguishing it from the first- and second-tier cities. In terms of vehicle models, micro trucks, micro vans, and light trucks have become the mainstay in the lower-tier markets. Users prefer models that are small, flexible, suitable for narrow rural roads, and have moderate load capacity. 

In terms of the requirements for range and charging, the underdeveloped markets do not blindly pursue long driving ranges. A range of 200 to 300 kilometers is sufficient to meet the daily short-distance delivery needs. Controlling the cost of vehicle purchase has become the core concern. Compared to the driving range, the coverage density and convenience of charging and swapping stations in county areas are more important. The battery swapping mode, with its efficient charging advantage, will become another important charging method after conventional charging, ultra-fast charging and flash charging. 

In terms of cost and decision-making logic, users in the underserved market are highly sensitive to purchase price, energy consumption costs, and maintenance fees. For them, recovering the purchase cost within 1 to 2 years becomes the decision-making threshold for upgrading their vehicles. Individual merchants and small logistics fleets place greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness and tend to choose models with low entry barriers in finance schemes and long-term warranty services.